Dealer Bust Odds by Upcard
The chance the dealer busts or ends on each total for every upcard, with stand and hit soft 17 rules, calculated exactly.
The dealer in blackjack makes no decisions. They draw until they reach 17 or more, and then stop. Because the rule is fixed, the chance of each final dealer total can be worked out exactly from the upcard alone, and that table is the foundation that every line of basic strategy rests on.
The tables below show where the dealer finishes, for every upcard, once the dealer has checked for blackjack and found none. That condition matters for an ace or a 10 upcard: you only make your decision after the check, so these are the odds you are actually playing against.
Dealer stands on soft 17
| Upcard | Ends on 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | Busts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | 18.9% | 18.9% | 18.9% | 18.9% | 7.8% | 16.6% |
| 2 | 14.0% | 13.5% | 13.0% | 12.4% | 11.8% | 35.4% |
| 3 | 13.5% | 13.1% | 12.6% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 37.4% |
| 4 | 13.1% | 12.6% | 12.1% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 39.5% |
| 5 | 12.2% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 41.6% |
| 6 | 16.5% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 42.3% |
| 7 | 36.9% | 13.8% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 26.2% |
| 8 | 12.9% | 35.9% | 12.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 24.5% |
| 9 | 12.0% | 12.0% | 35.1% | 12.0% | 6.1% | 22.8% |
| 10 | 12.1% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 37.1% | 3.7% | 23.0% |
Dealer hits soft 17
| Upcard | Ends on 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | Busts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | 8.3% | 20.7% | 20.7% | 20.7% | 9.6% | 20.1% |
| 2 | 13.0% | 13.7% | 13.1% | 12.6% | 12.0% | 35.7% |
| 3 | 12.6% | 13.2% | 12.7% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 37.7% |
| 4 | 12.2% | 12.7% | 12.3% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 39.7% |
| 5 | 11.8% | 12.3% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 41.8% |
| 6 | 11.5% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 44.0% |
| 7 | 36.9% | 13.8% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 26.2% |
| 8 | 12.9% | 35.9% | 12.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 24.5% |
| 9 | 12.0% | 12.0% | 35.1% | 12.0% | 6.1% | 22.8% |
| 10 | 12.1% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 37.1% | 3.7% | 23.0% |
Weak upcards: 2 through 6
With a 2 through 6 showing, the dealer will bust between 35 and 42 percent of the time. The 5 and 6 are the weakest, busting 41.6 and 42.3 percent of the time. This is why basic strategy stands on 13 through 16 against these cards: when the dealer will break that often, the main job of your hand is to not break first.
The 2 and 3 are only modestly weak, busting 35.4 and 37.4 percent of the time. That is why hard 12 hits against them. Only four ranks bust a 12, and the dealer is not quite weak enough to justify standing on such a poor total.
Strong upcards: 7 through ace
From a 7 upward the dealer busts much less, 26.2 percent with a 7 and about 23 percent with a 10. The dealer is also likely to finish on a total that beats 17. Against these cards, standing on a stiff hand usually just loses, so the chart hits until 17.
The 7 is distinctive. A dealer 7 ends on exactly 17 about 37 percent of the time, because a ten-value hole card, the most common card in the deck, makes 17 directly. That is why 18 stands against a 7 but hits against a 9: against a 7 an 18 is often already the winner.
What hitting soft 17 changes
When the dealer hits soft 17, the upcards most affected are the ace, the 6 and the 7, because those are the cards most often found in a soft 17. With an ace up, the dealer's bust rate moves from 16.6 to 20.1 percent, but the dealer also ends on stronger totals more often, which is why the overall rule still favours the house.
Using the table at the tables
You do not need to remember the percentages. You need the shape: 2 through 6 bad for the dealer, 5 and 6 worst; 7 through ace good for the dealer, with the 7 heavily weighted to 17. Almost every decision on the strategy chart is that shape applied to your total, and the calculator applies it for you hand by hand.
What a made hand is worth against each upcard
The dealer's final totals decide what your own total is worth. This grid turns the table above into results: the expected value of standing on 17 through 21, in cents per dollar, for every dealer upcard. A positive number is a winning hand on average.
| Your total | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stand on 17 | -15 | -12 | -8 | -4 | +1 | -11 | -38 | -42 | -42 | -48 |
| Stand on 18 | +12 | +15 | +18 | +20 | +28 | +40 | +11 | -18 | -18 | -10 |
| Stand on 19 | +39 | +40 | +42 | +44 | +50 | +62 | +59 | +29 | +6 | +28 |
| Stand on 20 | +64 | +65 | +66 | +67 | +70 | +77 | +79 | +76 | +55 | +66 |
| Stand on 21 | +88 | +89 | +89 | +89 | +90 | +93 | +93 | +94 | +96 | +92 |
Seventeen is a losing hand against everything from a 7 upward, which is why a hard 17 is rarely a happy hand even though you must stand on it. Eighteen wins against the weak cards and the 7 and 8, but loses against a 9, 10 and ace. Nineteen and above are winners almost everywhere.
How often the dealer has blackjack
With an ace showing, the dealer has blackjack 30.8 percent of the time. With a 10 showing it is 7.7 percent. In games where the dealer peeks, you learn this before you act, and the tables above already remove those hands. In games where the dealer does not peek, doubling and splitting against a 10 or ace becomes riskier, and the strategy changes slightly.
Frequently asked questions
Which upcard is worst for the dealer?
The 6, which busts 42.3 percent of the time when the dealer stands on soft 17. The 5 is almost as weak at 41.6 percent.
Why does the dealer bust less with an ace than with a 10?
An ace can count as 1 or 11, so many hands that would bust as hard totals become soft totals instead and keep drawing safely. The ace busts only 16.6 percent of the time once a blackjack has been ruled out.
Does the number of decks change these odds?
Only by fractions of a percent. These figures use an infinite deck, which is within about a tenth of a percent of a six or eight deck shoe.
Should I always stand when the dealer shows a bust card?
No. Stand on stiff hands, but double your 9, 10 and 11 and split the right pairs, since those are the hands where a weak dealer card pays the most. The strategy chart shows every case.
How these numbers were made: every figure on this page is calculated, not quoted. Our blackjack engine works out the exact expected value of every hand for an infinite deck, which lands within about a tenth of a percent of a 6 to 8 deck shoe. It assumes the dealer checks for blackjack, one split per hand, and split aces receiving one card each.
A note on risk. Basic strategy reduces the house edge to roughly half a percent. It does not remove it. Nothing here is gambling advice or a prediction of results. If gambling has stopped being entertainment, the National Problem Gambling Helpline is 1-800-522-4700, or ncpgambling.org.